Expert Insights for the 2024 Election
With the 2024 election rapidly approaching, American voters have much to think about prior to casting their ballots. This blog highlights insights from some of the most influential political analysts, insiders, and experts on the 2024 election. Specifically, these experts will explore how the election will be affected by competing factors, the political landscape, and party-specific goals. Ultimately, these insights will give organizations and individuals a better understanding of what's at play in the 2024 election, and the potential impact on business, the economy, and society.
National Debt and Immigration Arise as Key Issues
The Honorable Paul Ryan served as the Speaker of the House from 2015-2019 and is no stranger to the grind to election day, having been the Vice Presidential candidate for Senator Mitt Romney during his run for the presidency in 2012. He pinpoints three issues that could make or break the 2024 election for either candidate.
First is the current healthcare system, which he notes correlates with the U.S.’s massive debt accumulation. He also highlights how debt and immigration are, in his opinion, the key issues for this election. He states, “If we fix the two issues, debt and immigration, we’re going to have an awesome century ... there’s no stopping America.”
Polarization Narrows the Margins
Objective and insightful political analyst Amy Walter, who is the publisher and editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, has built a strong reputation as one of the most in-the-know political experts in Washington for more than 25 years.
One issue she discusses is the stark polarization between the political parties and its effect on federal and state elections. She notes how this directly leads to the United States having fewer competitive races and there being little room for error in bringing in votes from swing states. She says, “It means that we are going to see the race for the White House going through very few states. I think it’s five states that will determine the president of the United States: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada.”
Little to Separate Trump and Biden in the Polls
Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and Washington Post associate editor Jonathan Capehart is no stranger to the election process. The popular MSNBC Sunday show host possesses an extensive background in politics, along with two decades spent in Washington, which gives him a unique perspective on the upcoming contest.
Referring to recent polling data, he states, “Heading into the 2024 election, President Biden’s approval ratings are low, they are in the low 40s. A recent NBC News poll puts President Biden’s disapproval rating at 56 and approval rating at 41. Most of the polls have President Biden and Donald Trump pretty much neck and neck in the 40s.”
He also discusses former President Donald Trump’s massive lead among Republican candidates. Saying, “When Republican primary voters were asked who they support, Donald Trump had 59% support. The number two person was Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 16%. That is a 43-point spread.” Ultimately, Capehart emphasizes that polling is not an end-all-be-all, but this disparity in the support of different Republican candidates is not only wide, but crucial to consider leading up to the election.
A Tough Re-Election Fight Awaits
Considered among the most widely revered and authoritative political analysts and elections experts, Cook Political Report founder Charlie Cook provides an unparalleled analysis of today’s political atmosphere in a nonpartisan and objective manner.
Based on polling and the current standings among the prospective Republican nominees, Cook has shared that he doesn’t see any of the other candidates unseating Donald Trump as the Republican nominee for the presidency. Cook also discusses Joe Biden’s current approval ratings, noting how it is the lowest approval rating in history at this point in the race. “If you look at November one year before the election, going all the way back to President Eisenhower’s first term, no president has had a job approval rating this low,” he explained. “It just makes for a very, very tough re-election fight.”
Ultimately, Cook’s insight emphasizes his view that Democrats must be cautious about their nominee, as Trump is polling high with little close Republican competition now, and Biden’s approval ratings are below average.
The Role of Technology Should Not Be Overlooked
Audiences recognize Margaret Brennan as the moderator of CBS News' Face the Nation and the network's chief foreign affairs correspondent. Her broad insight and knowledge on a vast array of topics position her as one of the most trusted voices on politics.
She discusses foreign affairs and technology, focusing especially on China’s influence on social media applications, specifically TikTok. She relates this directly to the upcoming election, saying, “Every candidate for president is going to try and out-hawk the other on (the topic of) China. One area of bipartisan agreement is the growing threat of China.”
Ultimately, Brennan foresees major debate on how the United States should respond to China’s increasing influence over social media as well as talk over how social media is influencing people’s opinions. She also points out the danger of algorithms emphasizing certain viewpoints and how, now more than ever, it is something people must be aware of.
How Will China's Continued Rise Be Addressed?
Journalist, broadcaster, and host of public radio’s Full Disclosure Roben Farzad has established his sought-after voice through incisive analysis, gripping narrative structures, and accessible explanations on the future of politics, economics, and business.
Like many other experts, Farzad is focused on China’s economic and manufacturing prowess. Quoting Bill Gates, Farzad says, “China used more cement in the three years following the financial crisis than the United States did in the 20th century.” He argues that China has not been “unglued,” or had a “hard landing.” Farzad emphasizes that this should be a worry for American manufacturers as it is becoming much harder to compete with China in this area.
An Inside Look at the Republican Hopefuls
With a passion for making social science accessible, Victoria DeFrancesco Soto is a political analyst, social scientist, and academic leader with extensive background in campaigns, elections, immigration, and ethnic minority politics.
Sharing insights about the 2024 election and the state of the Republican party, she points out that while Donald Trump has a significant lead over the next two candidates behind him, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, there is much space for other hopefuls to close the gap. DeFrancesco Soto argues that Nikki Haley possesses something both DeSantis and Trump do not have. “She adds a softness — Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are brash, she’s not,” she explains.
Similarly, DeFrancesco Soto notes the large portion of Americans who believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction is at a whopping 76 percent. Thus, she says, “What we’re seeing is calls from the Republican Party saying that we need a consensus candidate.” DeFrancesco Soto argues that Haley’s softness is incredibly attractive to achieve this.
A Rematch Is on the Horizon
With expert knowledge at every level of politics, and at the state and federal level, POLITICO senior columnist and politics bureau chief Jonathan Martin shares perspectives on the 2024 election in many capacities.
Particularly, he discusses the likelihood of a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. “That’s the polarization of the country," Martin said. "The Democrats are entirely unified around one thing: their contempt and fear of Donald Trump. And I think that contempt is what insulates Biden from any challenge.”
Further, he says, “No Democrat wants to weaken Joe Biden and be blamed for losing the election to Donald Trump.” His insight emphasizes notions that much of the discourse on who will be each party’s candidate lies within the opinions on Donald Trump, positive or negative as they may be. And, in his opinion, the likelihood of this rematch grows more as time moves on.
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