Is the Presidential Race at a Tipping Point?
As the pandemic, protests, and economic uncertainty continue to shape our reality, they are also shaping the race to the White House. And as the all-consuming news cycle continues, top political analysts are reflecting on how the presidential election has transitioned from “a toss-up/tilting Democratic to leaning Democratic,” (expert political handicapper Stu Rothenberg).
In a post-Memorial Day analysis for Roll Call, Rothenberg shared how the country remains as polarized as ever, unchanging the projected outcome with Biden leading comfortably in national polling with many ways to achieve the 270 electoral votes.
To this point, CNN editor-at-large Chris Cillizza took a look at the recent polling in swing states – including Arizona, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Texas – to analyze how it will impact the electoral map come November. He outlines the different scenarios of ways President Trump could get to 270, but notes, “Trump is looking at an increasingly difficult electoral map today, with little suggesting a major change is coming anytime soon.”
The outlier remains who Biden will choose as his VP. While Biden has said he will select a woman, The Washington Post journalist Jonathan Capehart also argues that she needs to be African American, explaining “winning the Midwestern states Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 and appealing to African American voters are not mutually exclusive.” He shares four options for a Black female running mate, and his opinions for why Sen. Kamala Harris is the best choice.
So is the recent unrest the tipping point for voters?
According to The Cook Political Report national editor Amy Walter, it certainly feels that way. Looking at polling, she demonstrates that today more white Americans believe the issue of systemic bias in policing and society to be true than they did in 2016. Walter also examines tipping points in party-identification, showing that the real tipping point came at the end of the Bush-era and during the Obama-era, and that the election of Trump “didn’t shift partisanship, but it did deepen it.”
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